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9 Basketball Betting Tips That Can Increase Your Winning Percentage 2-3%

Here’s a secret: Professional gamblers don’t win as much as you may think. In fact, people that make a living at gambling win just above 52.4% of the time.

So, imagine for a moment what it would mean to you if you had a way to increase your winning percentage even by a small bit. What if I said to you that by the time you finish reading this article you will have learned how to increase the percentage of winning basketball bets you make by an incredible 2-3%?

OK, here’s how:

Basketball Betting Tip No. 1: Be a cold-headed bettor. We all have favorite teams, but that doesn’t mean we have to bet them if the odds aren’t in their favor. Don’t let your emotions get in the way of your better judgment, more times than not, you are biased and can end up making a wrong decision.

Successful bettors make good decisions based on solid data, accurate information and gut feel. Beating the spread takes a shrewd mind and the ability to make good decisions. In hindsight it’s important that you learn how to recognize what leads you to make winning bets.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 2: Mind the starting lineup. Make sure that key players are starting, because there’s nothing worse than to place a bet too early only to find out that a star player is out on injury.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 3: Take betting trends with a grain of salt. Trends are informative, and some are worth looking at, but what happened in the past doesn’t necessarily have much influence today or in the future. Let’s face it, although there are indeed some cases where certain teams dominate other teams, it’s mostly a matter of happenstance and upsets are always looming and present.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 4: Look for “value” bets. Oddsmakers are incredibly good at what they do, however often times they’ll have posted a weak line when there are a lot of games on the board. If you find one, play it. Books have to post lines up on every game, you however don’t have to bet every game. This means you can cherry pick opportunities to your advantage.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 5: If you play “short” underdogs, when the line is +1, +2 or +3, consider betting the moneyline instead, this pays more and often times you won’t need the points to cover the spread. On the contrary, avoid betting big moneylines on the favorite because one loss could put you in a hole that you’ll have a hard time coming out from.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 6: Keep your eye on turnovers and points scored in the paint. Points win games and a high turnover percentage usually means an advantage for you when betting against the spread. The same is true for points in the paint; shots taken closer to the hoop usually have a higher percentage which could make your choice easier when making a bet. Handicappers often overlook these stats but they could be key for picking winners.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 7: Be disciplined. Set yourself a bankroll and stick to it religiously. Don’t bet more than 3% of your bankroll on any one bet. If you started with a bankroll of $500, your maximum bet shouldn’t exceed $10-$15. There are inevitable ups and downs in gambling, and although this might not be the most exciting way to bet it does pay off in the long run.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 8: Be on the lookout for teams playing the third game of a four night schedule. Players will often be tired and have no legs left under them, especially when they’re on the road as being away from home takes its toll on player’s psyche. Although line makers take this into consideration, you may find that the odds are in your favor.

Basketball Betting Tip No. 9: Heads up on line moves. When you notice a line moving in favor of one team and the public has bet heavy on the other side, it may mean that sharp players are laying action and opens up an opportunity for you to follow them.

Jose Mourinho predicts England will progress out of World Cup group

Jose Mourinho has played it safe when predicting which teams will reach the last-16 of this month’s World Cup.

The Chelsea boss, clearly keen to keep friends over here onside, said that England will progress out of their group alongside Italy.

That means the Portuguese believes Luis Suarez and Uruguay will fail to get out of one of the tougher-looking groups.
‘I’m very emotional, I go always with my friends,’ Mourinho told Yahoo Sport. ‘If I say England out, next season they won’t let me coach here.’

There was a recurring theme to his choices, with the personalities and countries closest to the manager’s heart unsurprisingly going through.

Louis van Gaal’s Holland, Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast and Nigeria are all predicted to get out of their respective groups.

Interestingly in Holland’s group – where they will play Spain, Chile and Australia – Mourinho claims the favourites will go through, but that the South Americans could easily finish in the top two.
As for his native Portugal, Mourinho is backing them to edge out USA and Ghana to finish second behind Germany in a group where he expects no team will finish on zero points.

Meanwhile, he is expecting France – who have won one World Cup group match in 12 years – to perform much better this time around and win their group ahead of Switzerland.

How to test the Kelly Criterion – Part Two

The only way to fairly compare the Kelly system (or any other progressive betting scheme) to flat betting is to use a flat bet the same size as the average size of all the Kelly bets. That way, you’re risking the same total amount against the same overall won-lost results. No fair risking more money overall with one system than the other. That obviously skewers the results.

Or, another way to fairly compare betting systems is to keep track of the winnings as a percent of the total amount risked. If Betting System A wins 8 percent of all monies risked while Betting System B wins 12 percent of all the monies risked, Betting System B is obviously better than Betting System A.

This is precisely what Kelly-promoters choose to ignore. Like religionists, they want so very hard to believe their fantasy they won’t be made to face facts, no matter what. Comparing flat betting against a “1-star, 2-star, 3-star” system, for example, and going 58-42, if all your flat bets are only as big as your “1-star” bets, of course you will win more with the star system. You’re risking more and you’re winning 58% of your bets.

All right, back to our double-deck of cards. Time to check the profits from flat betting against the record of the Kelly criterion, and ta-daa! There’s your proof. Using the average size of your Kelly bets as your flat bet, the Kelly loses, and it loses every time. In fact, using most forms of the Kelly criterion, I would be surprised if after 70 or 80 ‘bets’ you are not – for all intents and purposes – broke.

You can use the same results to compare the “1-star, 2-star, 3-star” system. You don’t have to flip the cards again, you can use the same won-lost progression you got while testing the Kelly criterion. Set your own parameters concerning when to use a “1-star” bet, a “2-star” bet or a “3-star” bet. Perhaps between 55 and 58 percent you could use a “1-star” bet, etc. Of course, when your winning expectation is less than 53 or 54 percent, there is no reason to bet at all. Bet any system – including flat betting – only when you have an acceptable winning expectation.

The cold hard fact is that all progressive betting systems are nothing more than modified versions of the Martingale system. In the Martingale, you risk one unit, and if you win you keep risking one unit. If you lose, you double your bet, and if you lose again you re-double and keep re-doubling until you finally do win. Then you go back to risking one unit.

As any fool can plainly see, the Martingale can’t miss, so long as you win one more bet before you die you’re going to be a winner.

Well, yeah, if you lose 12 bets in a row you’d have to risk $409,600 to win $100, but how often is that going to happen?

As it turns out, plenty.

Modifications of the Martingale can make it more “forgiving.” One of the ways to soften the Martingale is to double your bet after two losses instead of after every loss. Or how about increasing the bet by only 50% instead of doubling? You see, with all progressive betting schemes the ratio of risk rises or falls in direct proportion to the ratio of “guaranteed” profit. This fact includes the Kelly criterion. With the Martingale, the promise of profit is essentially absolute, so the potential for disaster is also essentially absolute. With the Kelly criterion the promise of short-term profit is not so absolute, so the potential for short-term disaster is not so absolute. Nevertheless, you can be sure the potential for disaster is increased dramatically. Over a relatively short period of time you will invariably go broke due to the vagaries of binomial distribution concerning your winners and losers. (See our article, “Binomial Distribution and You.”)

NOTE: According to expert researcher Dr. Nigel E. Turner, Ph.D., Scientist, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health ( ), incremental betting is one of the telltale signs of someone with a gambling problem.

The Kelly criterion is sometimes touted as the best strategy against casino 21, but during my years as a card counter I finally learned otherwise. Against casino blackjack you will be urged by a lot of “experts” to use graduated bet sizes, depending on whether your expectation of winning the next hand is 51 percent or 53 percent or 55 percent. Frankly, I think that’s a lot of hooey, and I’ve played an awful lot of blackjack. My strategy finally evolved into trying to risk my maximum bet – my “real” bet – whenever the deck was in my favor and whenever I felt no heat from the floor people, and trying to risk as little as possible or nothing at all when the deck was negative. Any other bet size, including whatever size bet made after the dealer shuffles, is nothing but camouflage in order to hide from the pit boss. The key phrase, of course, is “maximum bet size.” Supporters of the Kelly criterion are apparently espousing that when you have a 55% winning expectation you’re supposed to use a bet so large that it would bankrupt you if you had only a 52% winning expectation. I can pretty much guarantee that if your bets are big enough to break you with a 52% winning expectation, they will sooner or later break you with a 55% winning expectation.

Blackjack players using the Kelly system are simply kidding themselves. If they could go back and average all their Kelly bets and simply bet that average amount every time the deck was in their favor they would end up with a lot more profit and a lot less risk.

At least, good card counters can know relatively clearly what the expectation of winning might be. The numbers on the cards speak for themselves. Against sports, however, you can never know that. There are countless variables involved in deciding which team is going to win a football, basketball, baseball or hockey game. These subjective and abstract factors are not so precisely calculable. In other words, you can never know what your winning expectation might be against a sports event. The best you can hope for is to believe you have at least a 55%-60% chance of winning. It is futile to try to handicap your own handicapping.

In my books and articles and in Professional Gambler Newsletter I repeatedly warn bettors that the size of their bets cannot be used as a pry-bar to win more than they deserve. If you’ll do the exercise above you will prove it for yourself.

…But y’know what? I don’t expect a big upsurge in my mail due to Thank You notes. Hardly any believer in progressive betting systems will actually do the test. People want very hard to believe what they wish to be true, and they simply choose to disbelieve what they wish to be untrue. That’s why religionists first denied the earth was not the center of the universe, or that it didn’t have four corners, and why they still deny the fact of Evolution. Users of progressive betting schemes want very much to believe they can earn more than they deserve. They refuse to be confused by facts.

How to test the Kelly Criterion

I apologize up front, but this article isn’t for everyone. It’s aimed specifically at sports bettors that are using – or that are planning to use – the so-called “Kelly criterion” to size their bets.

The Kelly criterion is essentially a progressive betting system wherein the higher your probability of winning, the more you’re supposed to risk; the less your probability of winning, the less you’re supposed to risk. (Sounds reasonable, all right.)

We won’t describe the Kelly system in detail here because it’s boring and it takes too long. Those of you who are using it already know how it works. Besides, by now there are so many variations that the one you might be using could be a lot different from any particular one we might describe.

I’ll cut right to the chase. None of the variations work; – at least, not against sports betting. I’m going to explain to you right here, right now, once and for all why the Kelly criterion as applied to sports betting would be better called the Kamikaze criterion. You can prove it for yourself, and here’s how:

Here’s what you’ll need, along with at least a half-hour of time:
1. A hand calculator
2. Two decks of ordinary playing cards
3. Lined paper
4. Pen or pencil
5. A ‘Thank You’ note to send me after you complete this exercise and realize how much money I’ve saved you…..

Pick any size fantasy bankroll to use as your total bankroll. Why not $10,000?

Thoroughly shuffle the 2 decks of playing cards together and place them face down in front of you. We’re going to turn one card at a time and count it as a win, loss, or tie. Everything 7 through King will be a ‘winner,’ everything 2 through 6 will be a ‘loser,’ the Aces will be ties. With those rules, the double deck contains 56 ‘winners,’ 40 ‘losers,’ and 8 ‘ties.’ That makes an overall ‘winning’ expectation of 58.3 percent, and that would be a great long term winning percentage against sports betting.

But that expectation will vary widely as you remove cards from the deck. As you turn the cards and remove them from the remaining deck the deck will turn ‘positive’ or ‘negative'; – that is, if you remove more ‘losers’ (2’s through 6’s) from the deck than ‘winners’ (7’s through K’s), the remaining deck will offer a higher expectation of ‘winning’ on the next draw, and vice-versa.

Figure the sizes of your Kelly bets accordingly. If the first card is a ‘loser,’ there are only 39 losers left in the deck, but still 56 winners. Your winning expectation for the second draw (’bet’) increases to 56 out of 95, or 58.9 percent. If the first card is a ‘winner,’ your winning expectation for the second draw drops to 55 of 95 or 57.9 percent. This, of course, is where the hand calculator comes in.

Be sure to record whether you won or lost the first bet, and how much you won or lost. As a Kelly bettor, of course, your bet sizes will vary up and down as your winning expectation goes up and down. Go ahead and do this 50-or-so times before reshuffling the deck and starting over. (Don’t do it more than 50 or 60 times without reshuffling. Always reshuffle when you’ve been through about half the double deck. Don’t go through the entire double deck.)

Remember, according to the Kelly criterion if the deck goes ‘negative’ and you do not have a positive expectation don’t bet anything. Just flip the next card and the next until you do have a positive expectation. Size your Kelly bets exactly as you do against sports, and to make the exercise more realistic, as when actually betting against sports, flip several cards at once. After all, NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL games often go off several at a time and cannot be bet sequentially. You have to lay several bets at once. Try flipping 3 or 4 or more cards at once – maybe even a dozen or so – just like when you’re betting on sports.

After doing another 50-60-or-so observations with the reshuffled deck, it’s time to compare your results using the Kelly criterion against so-called ‘flat’ bets.

Right here is precisely where Kelly promoters always screw up. Let’s say they have 100 actual bets wherein they win, say, 58 and lose 42. That’s a great winning percentage of 58%, of course. Now, they’ll explain that their basic bet is, say, $100, but if their expectation is higher than such-and-such percentage they risk $120, or $130, or whatever, and if their expectation is even higher than such-and-such they might risk $200 or more.

Then they compare what they won by using the Kelly system to what they would have won had they been risking only $100 on each of the 100 bets.

…..Duhhh!…..They risked more money with the Kelly system and they made more money after going 58-42. I hate to burst their balloon, but when you go 58-42, the more money you risk the more money you figure to make. Sorry, boys, but that is not news.

To be continued…

How Much Of Your Bankroll Should You Bet?

There are two essential characteristics to being a successful long term sports bettor. The first is the ability to recognise value in a given market, and the second is how to manage your investment bankroll. In other words, how to optimise that value and manage risk.

Many bettors have the ability to recognise value in a particular sports betting market, whether that be by ‘gut’ and ‘feel’ or some statistical model to asses the probability of an outcome. But once value has been identified, how much do you invest in that wager to make the most of that value while protecting your bankroll?

There are many and varied investment strategies that can and have been applied to sports betting, a number borrowed from the world of finance. Any Google search however will surely confuse the uninitiated, as a carnival of mutant theories and strategies parade down the page. Regardless, by the end of this article it’s hoped even the most inexperienced of sports bettors will be familiar with the most popular money management strategies, will have a better understanding of the fundamentals behind money management and how to increase their chances of joining the small percentage of sports gamblers who make a long-term profit.

A Slice Of The Pie

One strategy is to maintain a constant percentage of your bankroll with each bet. It’s assumed that this method will protect any bettor from losing their entire bankroll as the amount to be bet diminishes as your bankroll diminishes. It’s a little like Zeno’s paradox. The arrow will never reach its target as it halves the distance at each interval. However, while unlikely, even betting 5% of a €1000 bankroll will leave you with a bankroll of less than €200 after 33 consecutive losses.

But more to the point, it assumes equal value for each bet and additionally it expects equal odds being offered for each bet. Let’s say that bookmaker bet365 are offering odds for a team to win of 1.70. Would you really want to bet the same percentage on a 1.70 favourite as a 3.50 outsider without any recognition of their respective value? The answer should clearly be no. Further, even if you only bet on 1.70 favourites, is the probability of each 1.70 favourite winning identical in each instance? In other words, does each 1.70 favourite offer the same value? It could be the case, but its unlikely.

The Slice of the Pie strategy while offering a manner of managing your bankroll, fails to recognise value as a key part of a successful management strategy. Essentially, in the end, it will only manage the way you lose your money.
Inside out

This method is similar to the Slice of the Pie, except that it takes the further step of taking into account the odds being offered for a particular bet. So for example, you bet 5% of a €1000 bankroll as a standard unit, €50. If betting on 2.00 odds, the unit remains €50, but when betting on say a 11.00 outsider, that unit becomes €5. It can be calculated like this:

eg. (€1000 * 0.05) / (11 – 1) = €5

This works fine when betting on outsiders but what if we wish to bet on short priced favourites? If betting 5% of any bankroll, betting on a 1.05 favourite would mean betting your entire bankroll. Now I would never recommend betting on anything remotely close to a 1.05 favourite let alone your entire bankroll, (unless the odds were on the sun rising tomorrow, but even then I would probably spend a nervous night watching the darkened night sky). Regardless, the limitations of the Inside Out strategy should be clear as it still fails take into account the recognised value of a particular betting proposition.

K is for Kelly

While it still has its critics, the Kelly Method has stood the test of time since its creation in the mid 1950’s. Essentially this method takes into account both the probability of a given team or player winning and the value of the odds offered in relation to that probability – also known as ‘the overlay’. This means that it suggests you bet more depending upon how great the overlay is, but it also means you have to assess the probability of a given outcome with consistency.

The overlay is calculated simply as:

Overlay = (probability * odds) – 1

There have been many amendments to the Kelly method over the years, and although the fundamentals remain the same, each edition of the method offers its own insights.

The Full Kelly – While a proven method, the Full Kelly can make a wild ride of your betting experience and can suggest risky amounts be bet. It can easily recommend a bet of even 50% of your bankroll, which can reduce your bankroll to merely nothing in a short time. On the other hand, a winning streak can send your banroll into orbit

It is calculated as:

Percentage of bankroll to bet = Overlay / (Odds – 1)

e.g With an overlay of 0.20 and odds of 2.40 and a bankroll of €1000, the Full Kelly would recommend a bet of €143, or 14.3% of the bankroll.

The Fractional Kelly – This is a simple and conservative amendment to the Full Kelly method whereby the bettor only bets a certain fraction of the recommended bet. It could be 50%, known as the Half Kelly, 25% the Quarter Kelly or any percentage you feel comfortable with. Further, while the intuition may be that this will reduce your winnings according to the percentage you choose, it can be shown that a fractional Kelly method can return better results long term than the Full Kelly method.

The Constant Kelly – The same as the Full Kelly method, but rather than recommending a percentage of a varying amount, it recommends a percentage of a constant. So for example, instead of suggesting 15% of a diminishing or improving bankroll, it recommends 15% of a constant amount.

Busy Busy Busy

One of the drawbacks of any Kelly method is the issue of betting on multiple events at the one time. Let’s say there are 4 games you want to bet on, all being played at the same time. And what if the recommended percentage of bankroll for Bet A is 25%, Bet B is 35% and Bet C 35% and Bet D 40%? This amounts to betting 135% of your bankroll, which is obviously impossible.

One solution to this problem is to adjust the percentages proportionally so that 100% of the bankroll can be bet. i.e Bet A would proportionally become 19% and so on, as 25% is a proportional 19% of the 135% recommended. The issue with this is that firstly, you’re still betting 100% of your bankroll on 4 events which could all easily lose, and secondly, it means you’re not giving the same value to say a 25% bet on a busy day (where in this example it becomes 19%) as you would on a day when it might be your only bet.

One way to solve this is to use a fractional method so that no matter how many events you want to bet on in a single day, the total recommended is unlikely to eclipse 100% of your bank. This could well work, but as I know myself, it is easily possible to be betting on up to and over 20 events in a single day, meaning the 100% could still be eclipsed.

So What Do I Suggest?

Personally, I use a 10% fractional Kelly method. This allows me to protect my overall bankroll while I diversify and place many bets on sporting events being played daily.

So let’s say my bankroll is €5000, and I am betting on a team to win at odds of 2.60 offered by bookmaker Pinnacle Sports. Now let’s say I have assessed the probability of this team winning to be 50%, the recommended bet amount would be calculated as:

(bankroll * chosen fraction) * (overlay/(odds – 1))

i.e ($5000 * 10%) * (0.30 / 1.60) = €93.75

Try It Out For Yourself

While many bankroll management strategies are available to apply, I believe that the fractional Kelly method is best, as it takes into consideration the odds on offer, the probability assessed of a team or players winning and the resulting value identified in order to recommend a bet amount that will optimise that value without risking your bankroll and an early end to your career as a sports bettor.

Sports Betting – The Fallacy of the Numbers Game

When betting on sports, it’s important for the gambler to remember that the primary goal is to show a long-term profit, and not worry so much about short-term profits. Over the course of a season, every sports bettor will have winning streaks and losing streaks and periods where things seemingly can’t go wrong and spells where they can’t catch a break.

One error many sports bettors make, even those who have been gambling on sporting events for a length of time, is to worry too much about short-term profits, or losses, and lose focus of the long-term goal. As the old sports betting adage goes, “It’s a marathon, not a sprint.”

One of the more common methods of focusing too much on short-term goals comes in the number of games a bettor makes wagers on. There are some bettors who will refuse to bet an even number of games in a day, believing it’s more difficult to show a profit when they have to go 2-0 or 3-1 than it is if they have to go 2-1 or 3-2.

If the only goal of a sports bettor is to show a profit daily, there would be some merit in that type of thinking, but successful sports gamblers adhere to long-term goals and let the day-to-day wins and losses take care of themselves.

If you are a successful sports handicapper and your handicapping tells you there are two good bets for the day, why would you add another play that you don’t like as much just to give you a total of three plays? Sure, there will be days that the extra game will give you a profit, as opposed to a slight loss, but there also will be days that the extra game gives you an even bigger loss, as opposed to the slight loss a bettor would have by going 1-1.

To truly adhere to the strategy of betting on an odd number of games on a daily basis, a bettor should be wagering on 19 games per day, as mathematically, it is easier to go 10-9, which will give a profit, than it is to go 2-1. While that sounds ridiculous, it really isn’t all that different than betting on an additional game, or subtracting a game your handicapping says is a good bet, for the sheer reason of wagering on an odd number of games.

If a person is solely interested in showing a profit every day, they are much better off putting their money in a savings account or a CD, where they are guaranteed to have a bit more money at the end of the day than they started with and stay away from any speculative endeavors, such as sports betting or the stock market.

If your handicapping tells you there are only two games worth betting, or only four games worth betting, go ahead and bet only those games. While there will no doubt be plenty of days of small losses, by going 1-1 or 2-2, the successful sports handicapper will show a bigger profit in the long run by only betting those games in which they have the biggest edge.

Betting operators against fraud in sports

Fraud may damage and the online betting business. Many a supplier finds itself forced to act. The online betting exchange Betfair, for example, has therefore agreed to forward data from participants with suspicious betting high stakes on organizations such as the Football Association.

The name of the referee Robert Hoyzer is all friends of the football match in permanent memory. With his name is linked one of the largest sports betting fraud in German football. Quite come to rest, is the professional football in Germany to this day. Clubs and national team this year werea suspected to have been involved in fraudulent activity. The international football remains fraud not spared: In May, for example, corresponding suspicion in the Netherlands.

A case in point

Strikingly large sums were placed at the end of 2004, among other Betfair on the UEFA Cup game against Panionios Athens Dynamo Tbilisi. Betfair is one of the world’s biggest markets for sports betting. Athens was called the UEFA Cup game to break back to 0-1 and eventually won 5-2.

Precisely in this game development, with a leading team from Tbilisi and Athens as the winner of the game, was the sports betting operator Betfair put an unusual amount of money. The pressure to act for the sports betting providers increased and led to Betfair finally the so-called “Memorandum of Understanding”. With these memoranda, Betfair is committed to give customer data in case of suspicious high bets on major sporting organizations.

He also sees the main task of the online betting company in the fight against match fixing is to establish suitable countermeasures. Leinert said in an interview that there are already early warning systems and a global network of private sports betting provider. The measures are, if unusually high amounts are set at a sports bet. State betting providers such as Oddset so Leinert have their own immune systems.

Calculating betting odds at horse racing

How the betting odds at horseracing calculate? Each has determined already asked the question, how the betting odds in the horse racing sector arise. It is the horse racing area between two major types of bets to differentiate. First, there are the odds bets and secondly the totalizer. When bookmaker bet the odds, as already guessed from the name, determined by the bookmaker. This draws to determine statistical data zoom and then evaluates them. To gain an advantage for the customer, there is the bookmaker’s margin.

This is a percentage; the benefit of the horseracing bookmaker is designed. It is deducted from the betting odds. Thus, it should be clear to everyone that you are at a bookmaker bet directly set against the horse betting providers. Bookmakers are betting the odds firmly before the start of the race, besides the bookmaker bet there are the totalizer, when you do not act against the totalizer-betting bookmaker but against other players.

The odds on this bet are in the delivery of the betting slip fixed. In a horse race, betting enthusiasts can pay all in a large pot. However, not all the stakes in the form of profits are redistributed. A percentage will be the organizers of the race, the horse betting company deducted and other institutions, usually lying pay out ratio at 85%. Yet how the results at a totalizer betting odds? If one of the classic case of an outright proceeds, the rate is calculated for a particular horse from the quotient of the sum of all bets, all taxes and other costs are deducted.


Let us start with the assumption that on the winning horse Blackhawk total of € 2,000 was set. The entire field in total bets totalling € 6,000 were placed. The total amount of all bets are called „large pool “. From the “big pool” is now called „Take out “deducted. The “Take out” is usually 1/6 of the “big pool”.

After the “Take out” was withdrawn, remain left over € 5000. This amount is called „net pool “means. The “Net Pool” represents the distribution of profits. The rate on our winning horse is now calculated as follows: 5000 € (Net Pool) / 2000 € (bets on Blackhawk) = 2.5, the profit share on Blackhawk is thus 2.5. By now, everyone should be aware of why the final quotas in totalizer until the start of the race cannot be known. Until the start of the race to make the customers more bets, and thus changes the „large pool “all the time.

That is why the horse betting provider offers before the start of the race only Eventualquoten, which serve as a benchmark.

Horseracing are tremendously exciting

It is known, for example, bet365. On these portals, there are several betting options. Popular course is the place bet and is used by many beginners. In the place bet, the player on three different horses which might reach the finish line. So a very good option to work with now. Regardless, consumers can pick up repeatedly and again many other solutions. For example, the head-to-head bet. Horseracing offers an incredible tension and allow the correct ratio much money can be won.

Of course, this assumes that a reputable site is found which is optimal for this type of betting. At this point, it is extremely helpful to work with live betting. Thus, the player, the live horseracing track, make a bet and thus experience pure excitement. One possibility, which on many sites like bwin or bet365 is immensely popular.

Horse Racing: Bets set individually

Since then, there is the opportunity to place bets of any kind can be set individually. Players who are interested in the benefits and are on the lookout for such betting options should be aware that individual strategies to help set up a bet and place. At this point, it is of course a very good supplier to work to bring the maximum competence in this field and can provide. Therefore, a vendor that also provides live betting available.

Mobile horseracing and betting

In addition, payments are among the providers for example possible with placing a bet with success, which is incredibly important for many players and makes a tremendous amount of fun. So here, you can work specifically. It is essential the high-quality site be found with good performances. So a betting portal, which is ideal for horseracing. There is also the possibility of horse racing of any kind to play mobile. This means that the player has the option of directly through its own smartphone horse race track and place a bet.

The appropriate apps can be downloaded normally free. It is therefore possible that should be of interest to anyone who wants to work with individual game strategies. At this point to note is that all functions can be used on offer right from your desktop.

Horseracing: what features offer different applications?

Anyone who wants to pursue mobile race book found online matching applications. Depending on the accountant, several apps can be used! At this point to note is that with numerous individual strategies can be used that are completely their own game zeal and gameplay adapted. A good strategy is the most important key to success. In this context, many providers are using different apps to find. Popular example bet365 or portals such as bwin.

Therefore, the opportunity is available to deposit money to be paid out in winnings to put all bets to follow live bets and therefore enjoy a comprehensive portfolio, which is important for its own stake.
Mobile bet on horse races: Everything is free

The mobile apps are usually offered free of charge and can be downloaded.

Betting the Underdogs in Baseball

For most baseball bettors, the urge to bet the favorite is often too tempting to pass up. After all, the favorite is “supposed” to win, while the underdog is “supposed” to lose.

The key for sports gamblers is to determine if the price on the favorite is a true estimation of the team’s likelihood of winning the game. A favorite of -150 with a true probability of winning two out of three games is a good bet in the long run, while a favorite of -240 with a true probability of winning two out of three games, is not.

For the most part, baseball bettors are far more likely to see the second scenario, as opposed to the first, as the oddsmakers know that the majority of baseball bettors are going to back the favorite, and they will adjust for that fact.

A seven year study of baseball results produced the following winning percentages and betting results:

Underdogs: 6917-9644 -153 units
Favorites: 9619-6891 -641 units

Even though the favorites won at a healthy 58.3-percentage clip, bettors who backed only the favorites would lose four times as much as a bettor who backed only underdogs.

But since both scenarios will show a flat-rate loss, what we’re looking for are certain situations that occur, where we can take advantage of the oddsmakers’ tendency to inflate the line on the favorite, and look for value with the underdogs.

Favorable betting situations
The one area underdogs have performed the best is in divisional games, as during the study, the underdogs won 3414 games and lost 4513, but showed a profit of 191 units. On the other side of the equation, non-divisional and interleague underdogs were 4401-6434 and showed a loss of 341 units. So it obviously makes sense to give divisional underdogs a bit more consideration.

In the study, underdogs also performed better when coming off a victory, after scoring 10 or more runs, and in the first game of a series, but didn’t perform as well as the divisional underdogs.

Underdogs also showed a slight profit the game after being shut out, which makes sense, as the oddsmakers force the backers of the favorite to lay a little extra against a team struggling to score runs.

As the study shows, a bettor isn’t going to make money backing every favorite or every underdog, but it also shows the importance of looking for underdogs in the right situations. While you will probably win less than half of your underdog wagers, you can still show a nice profit, which is one of the great things about betting on baseball.